The head of the NBU voiced a troubling forecast. What prices should Ukrainians expect?
The war in the Middle East, which has caused a spike in oil prices, could add between 1.5 to 2.8 percentage points to Ukrainian inflation.
This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing Reuters, which published a statement from NBU head Andriy Pyshnyy.
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Forecasts and Risks
Speaking at the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, Pyshnyy noted that prices have already begun to rise, and the secondary effects of the war (particularly on fertilizer prices) will also be “quite significant.”
“We are trying to walk on the edge of a razor,” said the NBU head through a translator.
He confirmed that the central bank aims to reduce inflation to 5% within three years, using all available tools. Meetings next week will assess the full impact on Ukraine’s economy.
Meetings in Washington
Pyshnyy is participating in a large Ukrainian delegation at the IMF and World Bank events. He will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, other high-ranking officials, members of Congress, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The goal is to ensure that Russia’s war against Ukraine (now in its fifth year) remains on the agenda despite the new conflict in the Middle East.
Hungary and EU Credit
The NBU head welcomed the election results in Hungary, where Viktor Orban’s party suffered a defeat. He expressed hope that this would unblock delays in providing Ukraine with an EU loan of 90 billion euros.
Orban had previously blocked the allocation of funds due to a dispute over a war-damaged pipeline.
Strikes on Energy and Migration
Pyshnyy also noted that massive Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will hinder economic growth and increase the outflow of migrants.
Although the government expects that after the cessation of hostilities, the migration flow will change positively, the prolongation of the war complicates the return of about 6 million Ukrainians who remain abroad.
“The longer this continues, the higher the risk of assimilation of Ukrainians abroad,” he emphasized.
Recall that inflation in Ukraine has already accelerated: over the year, prices have risen by 7.9%, and in March 2026, by 1.7%.
The main reasons were the rise in fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and the increase in global oil prices. Food, fuel, and utility prices have risen the most.
The war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has been ongoing since late February 2026. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, is effectively closed by Iran, causing oil prices to spike above $100 per barrel.
The U.S. Secretary of Energy predicted a peak in prices in the coming weeks. In response, the U.S. imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports; however, European allies refused to participate.
Meanwhile, the conflict between the NBU and “Ukrposhta” continues over the establishment of a postal bank. The regulator has imposed a fine on the company, which is preparing a lawsuit, and both sides are publicly criticizing each other.
