When will high fuel prices affect supermarket prices?
The conflict in the Middle East, which has led to rising fuel costs, will also impact food prices in Ukraine. Currently, this is not reflected in supermarket prices, but the situation may change by summer or autumn.
This was stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by economic expert and executive director of the “Economic Discussion Club” Oleg Pendzin.
Read also: Food prices: what will rise the most by Easter and when will vegetable prices drop
Why the effects of rising fuel prices are not yet noticeable
Currently, Ukrainians do not feel a sharp increase in food prices because they are consuming the harvest reserves from 2025, the expert explained to RBC-Ukraine.
In the cost of these products, fuel only affects logistics: the delivery from warehouses and vegetable storage facilities directly to stores. This is why even before holidays, food prices remain relatively stable, and the population does not see a rapid increase in their bills, Pendzin noted.
A delayed blow to wallets
The real problem lies in the cost of spring fieldwork, where the share of expenses on fuel and lubricants reaches 30%, the expert warned.
In addition, mineral fertilizers will also rise sharply in price. This is due to high natural gas prices, which is a key raw material for the production of ammonia, urea, and nitrate.
“By accounting for high costs in spring fieldwork, we are setting high food prices for the second half of 2026. That is when we will start consuming the new harvest,” Pendzin emphasized.
When will fuel prices affect food costs (Infographic RBC-Ukraine)
Weather as a saving factor
The only thing that can soften the price blow is the volume of the future harvest, the expert said in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.
Under ideal weather conditions – without frosts and droughts – farmers will be able to harvest significantly more produce. In this case, high costs for fuel and fertilizers will be spread evenly over a larger volume of food.
However, if the harvest is average or poor, a price spike will become inevitable and very painful for consumers, Pendzin concluded.
Read also:
- Will diesel be 100 UAH? Expert names the timeline for the inevitable price spike
- Will the dollar drop before Easter? What to expect from the exchange rate next week – banker’s forecast
