How drone attacks have affected Russia’s oil revenues – and what new measures are announced by Zelensky?
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia – “kinetic sanctions” – have effectively negated all that Russia could have earned from the fuel crisis due to the U.S. operation against Iran.
This was stated by the Ukrainian President’s Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladislav Vasyuk at a meeting with journalists on April 10, as reported by RBC-Ukraine.
Read also: Primorsk has lost almost half of its oil storage: Reuters shows the consequences of attacks on Russian ports
According to Vasyuk, sanctions against Russian oil are the biggest topic of recent weeks. The strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Russian oil facilities – “kinetic sanctions” – have literally compensated for all that the Russians could have earned from rising prices and weakened sanctions.
“In other words, due to kinetic sanctions, we now see unearned 1.7 billion dollars – this is what Russia did not earn due to the inability to technically export a certain amount of oil from two Baltic ports and Novorossiysk,” Vasyuk explained.
Russians only received profits from the oil that was already at sea. Thanks to the easing of sanctions, they managed to sell the overwhelming majority of it to India and earn about the same amount they lost.
Thus, in February, which became record low for the Russian Federation, the Kremlin earned about 9 billion dollars from oil sales. Preliminary estimates for March range from 12 to 14 billion dollars. For Ukraine, this is worse than the figures for February, but better than the conditional October 2025, when the Russian Federation earned 15-17 billion dollars a month.
“Therefore, overall, it is possible to restrain the oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation. They have exceeded the annual budget deficit plan in three months, which is great news, and all other structural changes that have occurred, or crises, or problems that have arisen in the Russian economy, have not gone anywhere,” Vasyuk assured.
Not a lifeline
At the same time, strategically, earnings from the fuel crisis will not save the Russians. While it gives them the opportunity to earn extra money that can be sent to finance military expenses, from the perspective of structural economic problems, things are bad for them.
“We hope that the Hormuz Strait will be unblocked, and the impact of sanctions will return to the state it was in at the end of February,” Vasyuk added.
At the same time, there is no impact on the oil market from the easing of sanctions against the Russian Federation. This was expected. Since Russian exports, even in the best of times, account for “approximately 6% of global oil by sea.”
“30% passes through Hormuz. And it was impossible for these 6% at most to significantly solve the problem in the absence of 30%,” Vasyuk summarized.
Regarding the actions of the United States – he noted that it is still unclear why the Americans decided to ease sanctions. Ukraine hopes that with the unblocking of the strait, sanctions against Russian oil will not only return but also strengthen.
“Shadow fleet” – the next target?
Thanks to strikes on Russian oil export ports on April 3 and 4, no tankers entered them at all. Now the ports are gradually recovering – for example, in Primorsk, an average of two tankers are being loaded per day. Ukraine will soon adjust this situation.
At the same time, nothing has been happening at the Ust-Luga port since April 1. This means that this port is out of order; it is effectively dysfunctional.
“So, everywhere we can reach in the Russian Federation, all of this is in the risk zone. I would also say that tankers of the shadow fleet could be at risk. I would not rule this out,” Vasyuk intrigued.
Strikes on Russian oil
It should be noted that Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil industry have reached such proportions that even Western partners have approached Ukraine with requests to cease strikes on Russian oil terminals. However, Kyiv continues to act in its own national interests.
A series of strikes on oil terminals in the Baltic has already caused the Kremlin losses of nearly a billion dollars just from lost export revenue, and the Baltic ports themselves are unable to fully receive oil and load it onto tankers.
Several large Russian refineries have completely halted operations due to drone attacks, including on April 5, when “Nizhny Novgorodnefteorgsintez” – the fourth largest oil refinery in Russia – stopped working.
Additionally, the Russian oil terminal “Sheskharis” in Novorossiysk ceased operations indefinitely after Ukraine’s strikes. Early on April 5, drones attacked Novorossiysk – videos emerged online showing a fire at “Sheskharis” and reports of explosions.
Link: rbc.ua
