Experts predict a significant decline in Ukraine’s export potential
Ukrainian farmers report a sharp increase in costs and risks for exports due to rising fuel and fertilizer prices.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing a publication from Reuters.
Read also: “Time bomb”: how expensive fuel will impact prices in Ukraine – expert forecast
Ukrainian agrarian Nikolai Malienko, who works on fertile lands in the center of the country and supplies products to Europe, has reduced his corn acreage by 100 hectares this season.
According to him, this forced decision is related to the rising prices of fertilizers following events in the Middle East.
The greatest concern is diesel fuel, necessary for harvesting from 1200 hectares.
Its price has nearly doubled after disruptions in global energy supplies.
Exports under pressure from new risks
Despite the war with Russia, Ukraine maintains its status as a major producer of agricultural products, exporting to 150 countries.
At the same time, the geography of supplies has changed: volumes to Asia and the Middle East have decreased, while the role of the European direction has increased.
Analysts point out that Russia has strengthened its position in global markets, particularly in the wheat segment, taking advantage of cheaper resources.
Costs are rising, forecasts are worsening
Malienko estimates the increase in costs at least 10-15%, and in the event of a prolonged conflict, up to 60%.
“Our export potential may significantly decline,” said Malienko. “This year it will decrease by 15-20%, and if the situation persists, it could reach as much as 40%.”
The sector remains critically important
The agricultural sector accounts for more than half of the country’s foreign currency earnings. After the blockade of ports, logistics became more expensive, which hit farmers’ incomes. A partial stabilization was brought by the opening of the grain corridor in 2023.
However, problems remain: labor shortages, disrupted logistics, and dependence on fuel imports.
The fuel factor as the main challenge
Diesel prices have risen to nearly 92 UAH per liter. Farmers are forced to decide whether to buy fuel now or wait.
“I don’t want someone to call me and say: 150 hryvnias, when the grain is falling from the ear, and I have nothing to harvest it with,” said Malienko.
Experts predict that high prices for fuel and fertilizers will persist for at least several months, which may lead to a reduction in production and sowing.
Recall that the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center summarized the weather conditions for the first ten days of March and reported that in some regions of the country, winter crops resumed vegetation earlier than the average long-term terms.
It should be noted that in 2026, the price of vegetables from the so-called “borscht set” remains lower than in the previous year, however, prices for greenhouse products remain sensitive to fluctuations in the exchange rate and fuel costs.
For more information, visit rbc.ua
