Hungarian Prime Minister Takes Action Again, But Can He Harm Ukraine?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has ordered the cessation of natural gas transit to Ukraine starting from July 2026.
This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing DPA.
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Orban’s decree prohibits the Hungarian operator FGSZ from providing transit capacity for gas to Ukraine starting in July. The company has already allocated capacity for the second quarter, until June.
Gas trading is in the hands of private companies, particularly those selling energy resources and those providing transportation through pipelines. In Hungary, this is the pipeline operator FGSZ, a subsidiary of the oil and gas group MOL.
Traders purchase transit capacities from pipeline operators, which are distributed through auctions.
The publication noted that last year Ukraine received about 44% of its gas imports through Hungary.
Elections in Hungary
It is worth noting that Orban’s decree will come into effect significantly after the elections in Hungary, where he may lose. Voting in the country will take place on April 12.
In particular, a recent study shows the “Tisa” party leading over “Fidesz” by 16 percentage points among the general population and by 20 points among those who have made their choice. Among “certain” voters, this gap reaches 23 points.
For the first time in the observation period, a relative majority of voters believe in the opposition’s victory. The forecast for victory shows that 47% of respondents are betting on the success of opposition leader Peter Madjar, while 35% believe in the triumph of Orban’s “Fidesz.”
Consequences of Budapest’s “Valve Closure”
Experts note that such a “blockade” will not have a critical impact on the Ukrainian energy system.
As explained by the director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, Vladimir Omelchenko, Hungary is not a major supplier of gas to Ukraine, but merely one of the routes.
According to him, less than 20% of total imports came to Ukraine through Hungary. Moreover, Ukraine is currently importing very little gas overall—therefore, even this share is not critical.
Orban’s “Gas Ultimatum”
Recall that earlier Orban stated that the country could cut off gas supplies to Ukraine. He issued an ultimatum—exports will not resume until the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline is restored.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry responded that Kyiv is prepared for a possible cessation of gas transit through Hungary. Even if Budapest blocks this route, the state has enough alternative paths for importing fuel from the EU.
