What will affect the exchange rate in April?
April 2026 will be a defining month that could set the tone for the entire year. Despite economic pressures and external challenges, the National Bank has sufficient resources to keep the situation under control and prevent chaos in the currency market.
What to expect from the exchange rate in April and will there be sharp fluctuations in the dollar? RBC-Ukraine spoke with the director of the financial markets and investment activities department of “Globus Bank,” Taras Lesovoy.
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Main points:
- Exchange rate corridors for April: Dollar: 43.75-44.50 UAH, Euro: 49.50-52.00 UAH.
- NBU reserves: Over 50 billion dollars, which allows for confidently addressing excessive demand.
- Risks: The main challenges are delays in financial aid from the EU and fluctuations in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
- Forecast: Pressure on the hryvnia will be noticeable but manageable; chaotic fluctuations in the exchange rate are not expected.
Key influencing factors
Lesovoy explains that the National Bank remains the main player. With international reserves exceeding 50 billion dollars, the regulator plans to spend about 3-3.5 billion dollars to maintain market stability over the month.
The exchange rate will also be pressured by:
- Inflation and fuel: Due to the war in the Middle East, fuel prices are rising, accelerating inflation (forecast for March – up to 1.2%) and prompting people to buy currency more frequently to preserve savings.
- International aid: A 90 billion euro loan remains blocked, and available funds will last only until the end of April. This creates psychological pressure on market participants.
- Military risks: The scale of shelling and the situation at the front remain sources of uncertainty for the economy.
“It can be assumed that during April the overall situation will calm down somewhat, and a fragile peace will return to global markets. However, complete uncertainty will certainly not disappear,” the expert notes.
What will happen to the dollar and euro
In April, noticeable volatility is expected. On the interbank market, the difference between the rise and fall of the exchange rate on certain days may reach 0.5-0.7 UAH. However, thanks to the “managed flexibility” regime, the market will avoid currency shortages and sharp disruptions.
“Overall, we expect that during April the exchange rate indicators will be within the following ranges: dollar rate – 43.75-44.50 UAH, euro rate – 49.5-52 UAH,” Lesovoy notes.
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