Among them – to take away the right to vote
In the EU, several scenarios are being discussed in response to the possible victory of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the elections. At least five ways are being considered that could prevent the blocking of decisions within the union.
This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing Politico.
Also read: “Ukrainophiles”: Orban had a meltdown at a campaign rally over protests
According to Politico, there are fears in Brussels that a new term for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban could complicate the adoption of key decisions in the EU, particularly in the areas of foreign policy, budget, and sanctions.
One European official stated that if the Hungarian Prime Minister wins, “a real struggle” will begin to maintain the unity of the bloc. Another diplomat referred to Orban as a “Trojan horse” that undermines trust within the European Union.
Against this backdrop, the EU is already discussing possible scenarios to contain Budapest after the elections in April.
Among the options are changing the voting rules, limiting or suspending funding for Hungary, as well as more stringent measures, including the theoretical possibility of expelling the country from the EU.
Change the voting order
As Politico writes, this is one of the most discussed options in the EU, which is the expanded use of qualified majority voting. Currently, a number of important decisions in the EU require unanimous support from all member states.
If a shift to a qualified majority system occurs, decisions would be made if supported by at least 55% of countries representing 65% of the EU’s population.
This approach could reduce the ability of individual states to block political decisions.
Multiformat Europe
Another scenario regarding Orban involves a broader use of flexible cooperation formats, where a group of EU countries can move forward on certain political or economic issues without the participation of all union members.
At the same time, diplomats note that such a mechanism should remain an exception, not a new norm for the EU.
Strengthening enforcement and financial pressure
This point is already included in the Commission’s proposal for the next long-term budget, which will be discussed under the presidency of Ireland in the EU Council starting in July.
This means that in cases of violations of the rule of law, the suspension of payments or blocking of funding is now quite possible.
At the same time, Budapest has already indicated that it will veto any stricter rule of law compliance conditions related to the use of EU funds—or even declare a disruption of the entire budget if necessary.
Suspension of the right to vote
In 2018, the European Parliament invoked Article 7 of the EU, which allows for the suspension of a member state’s voting rights if it violates the values of the bloc.
As stated by former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, “even attempts to invoke Article 7 put pressure on Hungary—they are very nervous.”
At the same time, suspending the voting rights of one country requires the support of the other 26—and Slovakia is unlikely to agree to this.
Exclusion of Hungary from the EU
The most radical and simultaneously least realistic option remains the exclusion of Hungary from the EU.
Such a precedent has never occurred in the history of the union, and most diplomats consider this option politically dangerous, as it could push Budapest towards even closer cooperation with Russia.
Relations between Hungary and the EU
The Prime Minister of Hungary has long been a problematic partner for the European Union.
Recently, he blocked a decision on a loan for Ukraine, which he had previously supported.
This provoked a sharp reaction in Brussels: President of the European Council Antonio Costa stated that such actions are unacceptable and undermine the work of European institutions.
In response, the European Union blocked a loan plan for Hungary amounting to over 16 billion euros.
Additional concerns arise from reports of Budapest’s contacts with Moscow during the war against Ukraine.
It has been revealed that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto regularly contacted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during breaks in meetings in Brussels.
Through such communication, as reported by the media, Russia effectively gained access to information from negotiations and was de facto present at the EU discussion table for many years.
Szijjarto himself later confirmed that he maintained regular contacts with Lavrov during closed meetings.
